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2018 MLB Draft Guide: Ballpark Factors

Table of Content

• Out of the Park in the Postseason
• home runs, by stadium
• Harper dramatically wins Home Run Derby
• Playing Indoors
• Homering Against the Home Team
• MLB Draft Guide: Ballpark Factors
• Twins reach three-year deal with former Red Sox, Astros catcher
• Final: Harper def. Schwarber, 19-18

A team striking out 15 times in a game is not a rare occasion when they ran up against great pitching. It is something that happens to almost every team once a week. And too often in 2-1 games or 1-0 games, it is not pitchers painting the black and keeping the batters’ off balance. It is hitters swinging at balls that bounce 8 inches in front of home plate because they decided before the windup that they were going to swing. The chart is sortable, so you are able to examine any changes in fly ball quality within this broader 95–109 mph exit velocity, less-than-30 degree launch angle group as you wish. I did attempt to examine the impacts, if any, of these exit velocity changes on home run rates, and there was a moderate correlation (r-squared of 0.28) that is important to keep in mind.

• With a clock now in play, there is an element of speed to the Derby, and that should be fine with the free-swinging Baez, who doesn't tend to wait around. Fifteen of his 19 homers this season have come within the first three pitches of an at-bat. • Schwarber is one of seven players to hit a home run at least 117 mph this season, along with Joey Gallo, Judge, Nomar Mazara, Marcell Ozuna, Hanley Ramirez and Stanton. If all other things were equal, each ballpark would have a 3.33 percent share of the home runs. Now there are the other teams that have the option of opening their roof.

Out of the Park in the Postseason

That’s not the case, but it’ll make enough of an impact for fantasy purposes. It’s worth mentioning that Minute Maid Park finished above Comerica Park even with five fewer home runs because there were three less games played at Minute Maid last year. Likewise there were three more games played in Miller Park last year over Comerica, but since they tied for 217 total home runs, Comerica ranks higher.

Since 2012 the Padres, Mariners, Mets, and Marlins have all moved their fences in to increase home runs. In the case of the Marlins they not only moved their fences in, but also put in shorter fences. While this is obviously a move to increase home runs it potentially leads to a drop in extra base hits.

home runs, by stadium

Yet Coors still sees a bunch of blasts, with 992 homers over the last five years, 534 coming from the home team. Last season, they only hit 192 as a team, but it's a safe bet that they crack the 200 mark with the likes of Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story and Charlie Blackmon in the lineup. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. This is a fascinating thing but I do think you would need to take into account the “getting better pitchers” / “getting worse hitters” aspect of this in a more direct way. The Orioles got way, way better pitchers; the Mets thumpers have all been injured; the Brewers both lost all their thumpers and their pitching got way better. But there are a few stadiums that are harder to explain.

XBA measures the likelihood that a batted ball will become a hit. How far, in feet, a runner is ranging off the bag at the time of a pitcher's first movement or pitch release. How fast, in miles per hour, a ball was hit by a batter. • Harper sees pitches in the zone less often than any other big league regular, but when he gets one over the heart of the plate, he takes advantage. His 15 homers against pitches in the middle third of the strike zone -- rather than the inner or outer third -- lead the Majors.

Harper dramatically wins Home Run Derby

You could tell Schwarber was straining a bit with his endurance by the end, but he still used that sweet swing to muster 18 home runs in the final round. That gives Schwarber a total of 55 homers for the night, which is the second-most ever in a single Home Run Derby performance behind Giancarlo Stanton in 2016. • Bregman has homered three times this season while behind 0-2 in the count. Giancarlo Stanton is the only other player to match that. Will be there to track each and every big fly, and that's important, because by hitting two home runs that travel at least 440 feet in a round, batters receive 30 seconds of bonus time.

• Hoskins loves the heat, having smacked 24 of his 32 career big flies off fastballs. No other NL hitter has hit more than 21 homers against fastballs since Hoskins' MLB debut last Aug. 10. • Freeman leads all left-handed batters this season with eight home runs against southpaws.

Running backs coach Kenni Burns has played a big part in the development of players such as Mohamed Ibrahim and Rodney Smith under Gophers football coach P.J. No player from the Cubs has won the event since Sammy Sosa in 2000, so Baez or Schwarber has a chance to end the drought. The bracket is also set up so we could be treated to a Baez-Schwarber final, which would be entertaining for fans on the North Side. Bryce Harper defeated Kyle Schwarber in a thrilling final to win the 2018 MLB Home Run Derby at Nationals Park. It was a special night for the hometown star, who needed bonus time to get the 19 home runs necessary to topple the Cubs outfielder in the title round. Jump is a Statcast metric that shows which players have the fastest reactions and most direct routes in the outfield.

In Arizona’s dry, desert environment the baseballs don’t have much moisture. They’re a bit lighter and fly off the bat easier allowing for harder contact. By storing the baseballs in a controlled environment they’ll be a little heavier because of the moisture they absorb.

Homering Against the Home Team

I agree that personnel changes are a tough confounder for park analysis to overcome. Though as a frequent viewer of Brewers games, I can attest that I’ve seen far more balls that appear to be hit “on the screws” go nowhere this year. Visual contact quality that chased outfielders back toward the warning track the last few years is now resulting in outs caught by stationary fielders. As my eyes and ears continue to fool, it’s hard not to presume more external forces are at play. There were a handful of outstanding questions that I still had, one of which was the impact of the new baseball on a ballpark-by-ballpark basis.

Those players have combined to hit 156 home runs so far this season, and they should keep busy Monday firing balls all over the park. XwOBA is formulated using exit velocity, launch angle and, on certain types of batted balls, Sprint Speed. • A pitcher cannot throw a pitch until a batted ball has hit the ground, was caught or left the field of play in foul territory. • Schwarber's 117.1-mph laser beam into the right-field seats at Progressive Field on April 24 set a Cubs record for exit velocity since Statcast™ began tracking in 2015.

Harper's 15 homers of 110-plus mph are more than twice as many as any other Washington hitter has during that time. The biggest question has been how will this impact Paul Goldschmidt? To be honest Goldy might be the only person exempt from the humidor impact.

AT&T is also devouring solid contact homers and cheap homers. We’ll have to think of a new name for AT&T South because Petco Park actually grades out above average in this category. I was surprised to see that AT&T Park didn’t have the most barreled non-homers.

Twins reach three-year deal with former Red Sox, Astros catcher

It’s fifth behind Comerica Park, Fenway, Chase Field, and Kauffman Stadium. But AT&T Park has seen the fewest barrels go over the fence. This is the first Home Run Derby title for Harper, who was the runner-up to Yoenis Cespedes in the 2013 Home Run Derby.

The Orioles and Reds both play in hitter’s parks because of the lack of foul territory as well as the hitter-friendly alleys in their shallow outfields. It’s interesting if you look at the average exit velocity and launch angle of barreled non-homers. At AT&T Park, the average barreled non-homers are tracked at 103.2 MPH and 25.6 degrees. That’s the slowest average exit velocity (though league average is 103.8), but no other park sees anything higher than 24.9 degrees. It may not seem like a huge difference, but using Statcast’s field visualizer we can see what an impact that extra degree and a half makes.

MLB home run leaders 2018 Quiz By 22937

Table of Content

• Recent Game Results
• MLB Home Run Leaders
• MLB Home Run Leaders Since 2013
• Can you name the MLB home run leaders of 2018
• We're Social...for Statheads
• Team Pitching

The Kansas City Royals were the last MLB team to watch one of their players surpass the 40-homer plateau, amd my goodness did Jorge Soler make it worthwhile. He set a new franchise record and led the American League in dingers for the 2019 campaign. Although the batting average didn’t change, Davis was constantly finding ways to improve in other areas of his performance for the Oakland Athletics. He’s not only among the franchise’s single-season home run leaders, but he’s also within the top 20 of the team’s all-time home run leaders.

Ruth set the Major League Baseball single-season home run record four times, first at 29 , then 54 , 59 , and finally 60 . Ruth's 1920 and 1921 seasons are tied for the widest margin of victory for a home run champion as he topped the next highest total by 35 home runs in each season. Maris' mark was broken 37 years later by both Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa during the 1998 home run record chase, with McGwire ultimately setting a new record of 70. Barry Bonds, who also has the most career home runs, then broke that mark, setting the current single season record of 73 in 2001.

Recent Game Results

Mike Schmidt and Ralph Kiner have the second and third most home run titles respectively, Schmidt with eight and Kiner with seven, all won in the National League. Kiner's seven consecutive titles from 1946 to 1952 are also the most consecutive home run titles by any player. The slugging outfielder collected his 58th and 59th home runs in Milwaukee on September 18th.

He set a high bar for himself in terms of the fWAR (8.3) and wRC+ he produced, but he’s done a good job of continuing to put up solid numbers. Since his rookie season, Judge has never finished with lower than a 140 wRC+ and has enjoyed three different seasons of at least 4.5 fWAR. Whenever I think about this season from Stanton, I can’t help but immediately want to look at the numbers he put up following the All-Star break because they were insane. Prior to the midsummer classic, he slugged 26 homers with 58 RBI and 60 runs scored in 369 plate appearances. In 323 trips to the plate in the second half, he accumulated 33 home runs, 74 RBI, and 63 runs scored. Listed are all Major League Baseball players with 223 or more home runs hit during official regular-season games (i.e., excluding playoffs or exhibition games).

MLB Home Run Leaders

Even with calling The Bank his home park, Schwarber hit 25 of his 46 homers on the road. He also hit 29 before the All-Star break, nearly joining a group of sluggers to hit at least 30 before the midsummer classic. However, Voit did enjoy hitting at Yankee Stadium and was a much different hitter at home than he was on the road. In the Bronx, the first baseman posted a 1.193 OPS and 215 wRC+ with 16 home runs, while those numbers dropped to .693, 91, and six, respectively, as a visiting player. He put together a .948 OPS, 153 wRC+, and 1.8 fWAR in the process, which allowed him to secure his own top-10 finish in AL MVP voting for the first time in his career . His production was evenly distributed between the only two full months of the season, with 11 dingers in August and nine in September .

As the 2018 season was winding down, Pete Alonso hoped to make his big-league debut for the New York Mets as a September call-up. It’s just about impossible to say he didn’t deserve one since he slugged 36 home runs with 119 RBI between Double-A and Triple-A that year. The promotion never came, and there’s more than a reasonable chance he had a chip on his shoulder heading into Spring Training the following year. What’s interesting here is he absolutely pummeled every single pitch thrown his way. His ISO only dipped below .200 against one pitch, as well (.194 vs. changeups). Barry Bonds holds the Major League Baseball home run record with 762.

MLB Home Run Leaders Since 2013

He has found ways to elevate his game since debuting in 2019, and the sky seems to be the limit as he starts to put everything together. Well, if we really want to talk about a power surge during a shortened season, look no further than to what Luke Voit did for the New York Yankees. In 2019, he slugged 21 homers with 62 RBI over the course of 510 plate appearances. In less than half the number of plate appearances the following season , he out-homered himself with 22 and nearly drove in the same number of runs with 52. What’s interesting is that during those three specific seasons we just pointed out, many other things consistently got better each year. His fWAR went from 2.4 to 2.5 to 2.7, while his wRC+ went from 122 to 130 to 136.

All images are property the copyright holder and are displayed here for informational purposes only. Much of the play-by-play, game results, and transaction information both shown and used to create certain data sets was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by RetroSheet. His two most powerful months came in August and September when he combined to hit 20 homers . He finished third in NL MVP voting, which is currently the highest finish of his big-league career.

It was his third season of at least 30 taters, but the first time he led the league in this category. Ozuna not only led the league in homers, but he was also at the top of the leaderboard in RBI and total bases . His teammate, Freddie Freeman, won his first NL MVP award, but the outfielder secured his first top-10 finish by placing sixth. That’s what happened to Carter, as he latched on with the New York Yankees for a short time in 2017, and he hasn’t made it back to the big leagues since.

That marked the 11th time he’s enjoyed a multi-homer performance in 2022. He had six such games in 2021 and seven performances like this during his 2017 Rookie of the Year campaign. The only thing he could’ve added here was appearing in the Home Run Derby again.

Well, whatever Alonso did worked because he not only made the New York Mets’ Opening Day roster, but he was also the starting first baseman and shattered just about everyone home run he could. Even when the homers technically didn’t count, he kept it coming in the Home Run Derby. In addition to breaking the rookie home run record, he also broke the Mets’ rookie and overall single-season record while winning the 2019 home run crown. Even though he slugged another 34 dingers with 105 RBI for the Cardinals in 2021, his stretch between 2015 and 2019 is something you see when looking at the stat pages of some Hall of Famers. He never compiled fewer than 110 RBI and enjoyed five straight years of 30-plus homers.

In Major League Baseball , a player in each league wins the home run title each season by hitting the most home runs that year. Only home runs hit in a particular league count towards that league's seasonal lead. Mark McGwire, for example, hit 58 home runs in 1997, more than any other player that year. He enjoyed two straight years of clobbering 30-plus dingers, with 2013 being the culmination of it all. He not only shared the NL lead for homers, but he also went to his only All-Star Game and won his only Silver Slugger award. This campaign was also the lone time he collected at least 100 RBI, which is a number he hit right on the dot in 614 plate appearances.

Team Pitching

Through his first two years with the Rockies, he hit 28 home runs and collected 113 RBI in 981 plate appearances, which resulted in a combined fWAR of 4.4. In 2015, he out-performed all those metrics in just 665 plate appearances, slugging those 42 homers with 130 RBI while compiling 4.5 fWAR. Mark McGwire led the league in home runs 4 times including 52, 65, and record-breaking 70 home run seasons. His 58 home runs in 1997 led neither league due to a mid-season trade which split this total across 2 leagues.

2018 home runs, by stadium

Table of Content

• Round 1: Hoskins def. Aguilar, 17-12
• Out of the Park in the Postseason
• Examining Home Run Rates by Ballpark
• Report: Giants sign Ross Stripling to two-year deal
• Giving Fans What They Came For

If you take the same variables, with the exception for opening the roof there would be about 218 home runs. That slight 0.8% difference in the home run rate could possibly lead to 40 or more home runs. In looking at some of the ballparks with larger outfields there are some that stick out as hitter friendly parks.

His ability to steal bases makes him an intriguing grab later in drafts, but if he can’t stay healthy he won’t reach 20 home runs or 20 steals. Like the larger ballparks, the smaller ones feature a balance of hitter and pitcher parks. While Fenway Park and Yankee Stadium help out the bats, Tropicana Field, Minute Maid Park, and Safeco Field aid pitchers. So while certain features of differing outfields may benefit hitting over pitching the overall size of each park has little impact. Ultimately, the answer to why certain parks might have been more impacted by the new run environment than others is difficult to unpack.

Round 1: Hoskins def. Aguilar, 17-12

It's safe to say Giancarlo Stanton will embrace his move to The Bronx even more. Now, he gets to enjoy the hitter-friendly life at Yankee Stadium. Great American Ball Park , and Coors Field , rounded out the rest of the top-five. Joey Votto and the air in the Mile High City obviously play factors for the reds and Rockies, respectively. As a team, the Giants would have hit 76 more barreled home runs and 14 more solid home runs over the last four years if AT&T were a neutral home run environment.

Science suggests he could induce even more contact with a heavier ball. For that reason, he should be on your radar when drafting. So far he has yet to sign with the Red Sox and it sounds like that deal may not even happen. If Martinez does go back to Arizona he may see a slight drop in his numbers, but there would be reason to remain optimistic like with Goldschmidt. Martinez had a ridiculous .741 slugging percentage in 2017 with Arizona.

Out of the Park in the Postseason

Earlier this offseason for the 2018 MLB Draft Guide I published a piece on Ballpark Factors.Throughout the piece I touched on a variety of factors such as field area & size, elevation, humidity, etc. As a small note I briefly mentioned that Coors Field is currently the only park in Major League Baseball that utilizes a humidor to store baseballs. Well as we gear up for the 2018 season, news has come out that the Diamondbacks will indeed install a humidor. Now take a deep breath because this could be a big deal. In 2017 for Miller Park, the biggest difference was with strikeouts. With the roof open there was a 27.89% strikeout rate compared to a 24.55% rate with the roof closed.

For a pitcher it is the average of his softest 50% of batted balls allowed. • Baez's three longest homers of the season came in a two-day span from April 10-11, when he put together consecutive multihomer games against the Pirates. Baez is one of five players this season to go deep multiple times in back-to-back games. Robbie Ray had the highest hard contact rate (40.4%) among qualified pitchers last season and that number was even worse at home (45.1%).

Examining Home Run Rates by Ballpark

The same can be said for Jake Lamb who hit 16 of his 30 home runs last year at home. Lamb’s numbers will be pretty difficult to sustain anyway. He hit just .246 last season at home and his hard contact rate was actually better on the road at 38.4% compared to 33.2% at home. Hitting a heavier ball at home could potentially lower his hard contact rate even more and he could end up grounding out more. The purpose of which is to keep them from drying out, but by storing them in an environment where you want them to absorb moisture you also don’t want them absorbing too much moisture.

There is nothing exciting about strikeouts and home runs. Even the home runs are very fleeting excitement, followed by bases empty and more strikeouts. Even pitchers’ duals aren’t exciting anymore because they usually are the result of bad hitting and not great pitching.

The Orioles and Reds both play in hitter’s parks because of the lack of foul territory as well as the hitter-friendly alleys in their shallow outfields. It’s interesting if you look at the average exit velocity and launch angle of barreled non-homers. At AT&T Park, the average barreled non-homers are tracked at 103.2 MPH and 25.6 degrees. That’s the slowest average exit velocity (though league average is 103.8), but no other park sees anything higher than 24.9 degrees. It may not seem like a huge difference, but using Statcast’s field visualizer we can see what an impact that extra degree and a half makes.

As of 2015, there were eight ballparks measuring with at least 92,000 ft2 of outfield space. Of those eight, the three listed above are known more for being hitter friendly. Now some of the other ballparks with 92,000 ft2 in the outfield are Minute Maid Park, Kauffman Stadium, and AT&T Park. Interestingly enough those three ballparks ranked 19th or lower in Fantasy Alarm’s Ratings in terms of runs. Muncy's average of 31.2 degrees on homers is the highest in the Derby field and is tied for ninth of the 134 players who have gone deep at least 10 times in 2018. Overall it’s a little bit surprising this news isn’t getting more attention.

Homes of the Homer

After eight successful seasons at Washington, newly named Gophers volleyball coach Keegan Cook discusses why he changed jobs, replacing Hugh McCutcheon and how he views the current roster. Schwarber flashed that prototypical power swing to push 14 home runs before earning a 30-second bonus. He’s already done better than either Anthony Rizzo or Kris Bryant did before getting eliminated in 2015. A range-based metric of skill that shows how many outs a player has saved over his peers.

I agree that personnel changes are a tough confounder for park analysis to overcome. Though as a frequent viewer of Brewers games, I can attest that I’ve seen far more balls that appear to be hit “on the screws” go nowhere this year. Visual contact quality that chased outfielders back toward the warning track the last few years is now resulting in outs caught by stationary fielders. As my eyes and ears continue to fool, it’s hard not to presume more external forces are at play. There were a handful of outstanding questions that I still had, one of which was the impact of the new baseball on a ballpark-by-ballpark basis.

Report: Giants sign Ross Stripling to two-year deal

The Rogers Center went from 4.33 percent of the league-wide home runs down to 3.79 this year. In fact, eight of the nine highest home run shares over the sample were down this year. This one might be pitching staff related, as the Minnesota Twins have seen their HR/FB number shoot up from previous years. Considering he is still one of the best pitchers in the game even at 34 years old, there’s plenty of reason to suspect big things from Greinke this year. To compile the statistics cited in this project, we utilized data from the last five full seasons of MLB play, according to ESPN’s Home Run Tracker. These pennant winners weren’t the only ones to contribute to the staggering 104 homers hit during the 2017 playoffs, however.

We can only guess which parks now have them, but it is important to keep in mind that the ball is not the only difference. Statcast park effects show the observed effect of each displayed stat based on the events in the selected park. • Harper's 473-foot blast to dead center field on May 4 set a record for the longest home run by a Washington player at Nationals Park since Statcast™ began tracking in 2015. The ballpark has seen only one ball hit farther during that time -- a 476-foot shot off the bat of the Brewers' Domingo Santana last July 26. Chase Field comes in at number three on our list with 46.8 more home runs than its previous five year average.

Ray is certainly the kind of pitcher who could use a break at home and this humidor move could help him greatly. Last year he had a 4.08 ERA (4.45 FIP) at home while on the road he fared much better with a 1.86 ERA (3.09 FIP). He’s still a high variance pitcher considering he averaged 12.11 K/9 last season, but that also came with a 3.94 BB/9. The good news is that with a heavier baseball he should have fewer outings where he gets lit up. We set out to scour recent MLB history for the teams, stadiums, and players that have treated fans to the most dingers.

So while there may have been more hits with the roof closed it seems the open air can benefit the long ball in Milwaukee. Perhaps while the balls may travel further with open air thus increasing the amount of home runs, it may cause more line drives to hang up a bit to be caught. Fenway Park’s outfield measures in around 83,500 ft2 because of the heavily shallow left field due to the Green Monster that is over 37-feet tall. This becomes a target for right-handed hitters to try and hit one over the wall or at worst hit one off the wall and reach base safely. Yankee Stadium is notorious for its short right field porch. By far the shallowest right field in all of baseball, at 24,200 ft2 it really plays as a hitter’s park.